Deepwater FIDs Set to Drive Sub-Saharan Africa Production Growth

Sub-Saharan Africa’s deepwater production is expected to grow by over 1 million boe/d by 2035 and big-ticket projects taking final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2026 and 2027 will be key to unlocking this.

In late January, Equatorial Guinea and Chevron signed-off the Aseng Gas blowdown project. This will monetize ~1 Tcf from Aseng on Block I and help backfill the Equatorial Guinea LNG plant.

We expect production to start in 2028. And in May, Eni gave the greenlight to Phase 3 of the Baleine project offshore Côte d’Ivoire. The full-field Phase 3 development will increase oil production from ~60,000 to 150,000 bbl/d and gas output from 80 to 200 MMcf/d. We expect the increased production by the end of the decade.

Azule Energy’s Blocks 31 and 31/21 Greater PAJ project in Angola was sanctioned in June. While FID was expected early this year, Equinor’s earlier decision to sell its stakes in Blocks 31 and 31/21 may have contributed to a delay. The Norwegian NOC has since doubled down on the development, pulling the sale of the assets from the market. Either way, the project has achieved a crucial milestone. It will recover ~250 MMbbl of oil from seven fields spread over Blocks 31 and 31/21. Peak production of around 95,000 bbl/d is expected with first oil in 2029.

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More Deepwater Sanctions on the Horizon

Still on track for sanction this year is TotalEnergies’s Venus oil and gas project on PEL 56 in Namibia. The find has been fully appraised, the operator has completed front-end engineering and design work and project sanction is imminent. In Nigeria, Shell’s Bonga SW/Aparo (BSWAP) project has been granted special time bound incentives. Subject to cost optimisation, we expect it to be sanctioned during the year. Likewise, Eni’s Etan/Zabazaba is expected to progress. One note of caution that may cause a delay is the fact partner Shell is highly focused on BSWAP.

While the Nigerian deepwater is a key growth engine for the Majors, FID for ExxonMobil’s Owowo (OML 139/OML 154) and TotalEnergies’ Preowei developments are likely to slip into 2027. For the former, there has been a change of plan as the project is now being designed to monetise some gas via Nigeria LNG (NLNG). Initially, the plan was to re-inject all produced gas. Partner TotalEnergies also favours the cheaper Usan infill project, sanctioned in July, over the larger, more costly Owowo. And regarding Preowei, the operator is keen to drill around Akpo/Egina to see if additional volumes can be found to support a larger clustered tie-back.

In Ghana, the Deepwater Three Points (Pecan) project will not make FID this year.

While FEED is complete and well and subsurface contracts are largely finalised, uncertainty over the future partnership structure continues to weigh progress down. Sanction-hit Lukoil is looking to sell its international assets which include its 38% non-operated stake in Pecan. An agreement with the Carlyle Group for the portfolio (excl. Kazakhstan) was announced in January.

But Ghana is understood to be considering acquiring the stake in Pecan, while Shell, and reportedly Eni, are also in separate discussions over entering the project. Shell is holding discussions in parallel to enter the neighbouring South Deepwater Tano (SDWT) block. With so many moving parts, and regulatory approval in Ghana often a slow process, Pecan will remain in stasis.

About the Author: David Thomson is Vice President Sub-Saharan Africa at Welligence Energy Analytics and has over 25 years of experience, specialising in upstream oil and gas research across the region. He has also held roles covering Global Exploration and Latin America upstream. Prior to Welligence, he held senior research roles at Wood Mackenzie, and he started his career at S&P’s Platts, where he covered European product markets and the North Sea.
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About the Author: Lauren Hunter is an Analyst at for Sub-Saharan Africa at Welligence Energy Analytics, covering upstream oil and gas. Prior to this role, she previously worked in the renewables sector and as an Economist. Lauren holds an MSc in Economics and the Policy of Energy and Climate Change from the University of Strathclyde. © Welligence