DNV: Why Hydrogen is Not the Next LNG

DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook Hydrogen to 2060 report explains why hydrogen won’t be the next LNG.

LNG emerged to monetize geographically concentrated natural gas resources and move energy from a small number of exporting regions to distant markets. Hydrogen, by contrast, will be produced in all regions, predicts DNV.

As a result, hydrogen systems are shaped primarily by local production, demand patterns, and balancing requirements rather than by global resource scarcity. Moreover, LNG trade is the backbone of gas supply for importing regions, whereas the hydrogen trade will generally complement domestic production and storage rather than replace it.

The report predicts that the hydrogen trade scales mostly through hydrogen derivatives using existing infrastructure. Cost advantages (e.g. ultra cheap natural gas, or abundant renewable resources) have stoked ambitions in some countries to become global hydrogen production hubs.
In practice, those advantages tend to evaporate at the point of use. Once conversion, long-distance transport, storage, and reconversion are included, the apparent advantage of low‑cost production narrows substantially.

Trade therefore becomes viable only under specific conditions: where cost differences are very large and persistent or where local supply is constrained by land availability, infrastructure deployment speed, or policy choices.

Trading pure hydrogen requires dedicated, end‑to‑end infrastructure: conversion or liquefaction facilities, hydrogen‑specific pipelines or shipping, specialized terminals, storage, and often reconversion at destination. These assets are capital‑intensive, specialized, and characterized by long lead times. As a result, hydrogen trade would rely on tightly coordinated projects anchored by long‑term contracts and high confidence in future offtake.

Hydrogen derivatives follow a different logic. Ammonia and methanol are already traded globally as chemical commodities, supported by existing shipping fleets, port infrastructure, storage facilities and handling standards. While clean production requires new upstream investment, much of the downstream logistics involve adapting established systems rather than building new. This significantly lowers barriers to cross‑border trade and allows derivative markets to scale fast and flexibly.

Hence, DNV forecasts international trade in hydrogen derivatives will expand robustly. In total, trade as ammonia is forecasted to represent 43% of total trade in hydrogen equivalent.

Trade in hydrogen derivatives is expected to be organized around regional market structures rather than global price arbitrage. Flows typically connect production hubs with nearby industrial or energy demand centres, often following existing maritime routes.