Strong Soya Bean Supply Drives 15% Jump in Grain Shipments
"During the first six weeks of 2026, global bulk grain shipments have jumped 15% y/y, supported by a 30% y/y surge in soya bean shipments and a 17% increase in wheat shipments. Record harvests in the Southern Hemisphere are boosting exports while North America has continued to ship its high export surplus. The trade agreement between the US and China further boosted volumes, contributing to a 26% y/y increase in US soya bean shipments and a resumption of sorghum shipments,“ says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCO.
Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere have been favourable. Brazil’s ongoing soya bean harvest is expected to rise 5% y/y, reaching a record high of 180m tonnes, equivalent to 42% of the world’s production, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In Argentina, the wheat crop is also estimated to have reached a record high by expanding 50% y/y and coming in 26% above the previous record from 2022. Lastly, wheat production in Australia is estimated to have risen 8% y/y.
Grains’ tonne mile demand has risen 17% y/y so far this year, slightly above cargo volume growth. Shipments out of South America typically sail for longer than average distances, contributing to ship demand. In contrast, grain shipments out of Russia and Ukraine often sail for short distances and these have been weak so far this year.
“An uptick in grain cargoes has helped lift freight rates for ships smaller than capesize during a seasonally weak period due to softer Chinese import demand. Especially the panamax segment has stood out, with the Baltic Exchange Panamax Index rising 69% y/y on average during this period. Grains typically account for around a third of the segment’s tonne miles and shipments have risen 21% y/y,” says Gouveia.
Grain shipments on supramax ships also firmed up, rising 20% y/y so far in 2026. However, grains only account for 13% of the segment’s tonne mile demand and therefore have a smaller impact on freight rates.
Looking ahead, the outlook for grain shipments during the first half of 2026 appears positive amid strong crops. Brazilian soya bean shipments are expected to continue ramping up over the coming weeks, boosting panamax ship demand and increasing competition with US beans. Furthermore, a reduction in Argentinian export taxes could contribute to increased exports.
“The outlook for the second half of the year appears balanced, but much uncertainty remains. Wheat planting in Europe and North America indicates that production could be stable or slightly weaken from a high baseline, while Brazilian maize production is projected to weaken 4% y/y. Overall, we forecast grain shipments to rise 5-6% in 2026,” says Gouveia.
