Supply Pressurei in Container Vessel Sector
"Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
BIMCO continues to forecast two scenarios. The “SoH Closed” scenario assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed throughout 2026 and 2027, while the “SoH Open” scenario assumes normal transit conditions throughout 2027. In both scenarios, ship supply is forecast to grow faster than demand in 2027.
In 2026, the balance remains supported by continued Cape of Good Hope rerouting, strong growth in trades not involving the Persian Gulf while some ships remain unavailable within the Persian Gulf. However, fleet growth is expected to accelerate in 2027 as deliveries increase and recycling remains low.
Global container volumes grew 5.1% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026. Strong growth in non-Persian Gulf trades more than offset falling volumes to and from South and West Asia, while exports from East and Southeast Asia accounted for more than half of year-to-date growth.
Head-haul and regional volumes increased by 6.3% while volumes in back-haul trades did not grow. Ship demand has consequently again grown faster than overall cargo volumes.
Risks to demand remain tilted to the downside. Higher energy prices continue to weigh on consumer confidence in the US and the EU, while Chinese retail sales volume growth has slowed significantly.
“Unless Strait of Hormuz transit conditions normalise, continued oil supply constraints and higher oil prices could weaken global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027,” says Rasmussen.
The container ship order book now exceeds 14m TEU, equal to 42% of the existing fleet, and fleet and supply growth will consequently accelerate in the coming years. Fleet capacity has already reached 34m TEU and is forecast to grow 4.6% in 2026 and 9% in 2027 as recycling activity is expected to remain low.
Even more supply could be released to the market as some liner operators have begun returning services to Suez Canal routings. If the gradual normalisation continues during 2027, ship demand growth could end five percentage points lower than forecast. Once routings fully normalise, ship demand could be 10% lower than if Cape of Good Hope routing remains preferred.
“While the supply/demand balance has strengthened during 2026, we expect that increased supply growth will drive a weakening of the markets during 2027, especially if a return to Suez Canal routings weakens ship demand,” says Rasmussen.
