US Natural Gad Futures Remain Steady Ahead of Mild Weather
US natural gas futures held steady on Tuesday as bearish forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected offset a bullish drop in daily output to an eight-month low.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 0.2 cent, or 0.1%, to $3.169 per million British thermal units.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.6 bcfd so far in October.
That drop in average output so far in October was due to a combination of Hurricane Isaias production shut-ins and force majeure incidents and problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere over the past month or so.
On a daily basis, LSEG said output was on track to drop to an eight-month low of around 107.1 bcfd on Tuesday, even as production slowly returns in the Gulf of Mexico after Isaias.
The US Marine Minerals Administration, which oversees development of offshore energy, said just about 25% or 0.5 bcfd of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas was still shut-in on Monday, down from a peak of 59% or 1.3 bcfd shut-in on October 9 when Isaias crashed into the Florida Panhandle.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 103.9 bcfd this week to 106.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 17.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Around the world, gas traded at $28 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe, a 45-month high, and $26 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Prices in the US, however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.
No matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
Week ended Oct 9 Forecast | Week ended Oct 2 Actual | Year ago Oct 9 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 9 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +77 | +85 | +80 | +90 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,577 | 3,500 | 3,710 | 3,522 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.6% | +2.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> | 3.12 | 3.17 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> | 28.20 | 27.57 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> | 26.09 | 25.98 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 115 | 114 | 116 | 128 | 147 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 52 | 57 | 44 | 47 | 34 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 167 | 171 | 160 | 175 | 181 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 109.4 | 110.6 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 118.1 | 116.4 | 117.8 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 17.0 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 5.8 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 38.7 | 35.3 | 31.4 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.8 | 76.4 | 77.9 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.5 | 103.9 | 106.1 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 86 | 86 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 87 | 86 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 16 | Week ended Oct 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 17 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 44 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> | 0.88 | 0.88 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> | 3.56 | 3.56 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> | 0.61 | 0.61 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> | 2.44 | 2.44 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> | 1.17 | 1.17 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> | 1.89 | 1.89 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> | 1.24 | 1.24 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> | 54.23 | 36.00 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> | 160.26 | 123.96 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) <W-MIDCP-IDX> | 57.92 | 48.36 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> | 20.50 | 25.83 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) <W-SP15-IDX> | 27.17 | 36.26 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reuters)
