Visible Crude Loadings Halt, Iran’s Empty Tankers Remain Idle Since September
No Iran-affiliated tanker still transmitting AIS in the Middle East Gulf has shown a draft change indicative of loading since September 17. Before then, MIOC detected only seven AIS-transmitting tankers loading almost 6 million barrels between July 27 and September 17, a pace of around 113,000 barrels per day.
Satellite imagery points the same way. Automated detection over Kharg Island from September 18 to November 1 found no dark tanker at either of the island’s loading terminals. Dark vessels are holding the same nine positions in the anchorage east of Kharg Island, where tankers wait to load at Kharg.
Spare Capacity Sits Unused Inside the Gulf
Windward data shows 47 tankers in the Middle East Gulf that are owned by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) or the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), fly Iran’s flag, or have made Iranian port calls in 2026. Only 25 of them still broadcast AIS, and 22 are dark, 14 of them since the blockade began. The figures that follow describe only the 25 tankers still transmitting, not Iran’s entire commercial tanker fleet.
Of those 25, 15 (60%) appear to be in ballast, and 11 of them are VLCCs. Together they have nearly 24 million barrels of empty capacity. Another nine, including three VLCCs, sit laden with about 11 million barrels aboard. The load state of one is undetermined.
Iran’s AIS-transmitting tankers in the Gulf have room to spare, but none of them has loaded since September 17.
Three Explanations for Where the Crude Is Going
There is no evidence showing where Iran’s crude is going instead, which leaves three possible explanations.
The first is that crude is moving into onshore tanks at Kharg Island. The second is that tankers are loading while dark, between satellite passes. Either would only postpone the problem of Iran having limited capacity to keep its crude. The third is that Iran has cut output and begun capping wells. This would be its worst case, since it would risk equipment damage, add repair time, and raise the cost of bringing the wells back online.
Iran’s Old Floating Storage Now Sits Empty
Outside the Middle East Gulf, the AIS-visible tankers that once served as Iran’s floating storage prior to delivering their cargo now sit largely empty. Windward data shows 140 Iran-linked tankers broadcasting AIS outside the Gulf, of which 115 are in ballast, and 25 are laden.
Five main holding areas account for 76 of those tankers, off Malaysia’s Eastern Outer Port Limits, Sri Lanka, eastern Malaysia, Karachi, and Duqm. Only three of the 76 are laden or partly laden, according to available AIS draft data.
Laden AIS-transmitting Iran-associated tankers across Asia and the Indian Ocean carry about 9.6 million barrels. About 5.9 million barrels of that, or 61%, is in transit aboard five tankers heading toward China.
What to Watch
Each of the three explanations leaves a trace. A tanker anchored east of Kharg that changes position or draft between satellite passes would point to dark loading. Continued silence at the terminals would put more weight on onshore storage and, as those tanks fill, on output cuts. The longer the gap runs past six weeks, the narrower Iran’s options become.
