BIMCO: Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook
The unprecedented trade policy uncertainty following President Trump import tariff announcements have weakened the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand.
“In 2025, we forecast a balanced development in the crude tanker market followed by a slight weakening in 2026. The product tanker market is expected to weaken during both 2025 and 2026 as deliveries from the large order book increases supply growth,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects that oil demand will increase by 0.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025. In February, an increase of 1.1 mbpd was forecast. In 2026, demand is expected to grow by 0.8 mbpd.
Oil supply is consequently expected to outpace demand by close to 1 mbpd during both 2025 and 2026. Therefore, oil prices are expected to be under pressure during both years, and the lower prices may help underpin demand.
The excess supply could further drive an increase in global oil inventories which may further support crude tanker demand.
Though there so far is no clear evidence of more ships transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal, the ceasefire agreed between the US and the Houthi movement could eventually lead to normal routings.
Should that happen, BIMCO expects that crude and product tanker demand will end 1% and 3.5% lower than the forecast, respectively.
Following two years of very low recycling activity, BIMCO forecasts that recycling activity will rebound in 2025 to and double in 2026. Despite this, a significant recycling overhang of older ships will remain, and recycling could therefore end even higher than our forecast.
