Global Tensions Ratchet Up Shipping Sector Risk
The global maritime sector is entering an era of heightened geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty that threatens to offset long-term safety gains, according to Allianz Commercial’s 2025 Safety and Shipping Review. While vessel losses have reached a record low, the industry faces a volatile landscape shaped by trade conflict, increased sanctions, shadow fleets, and ongoing security threats in key shipping lanes.
The review underscores how fast-evolving global tensions — from attacks on commercial vessels and sabotage of subsea infrastructure to widespread protectionist policies — are reshaping the risk profile for shipowners, charterers, and underwriters alike. This shift comes as the sector continues to grapple with the aftershocks of COVID-19, the ongoing energy transition, and an increase in major claims due to fires, collisions, and groundings.
“We’ve made real progress on traditional risks, but we’re entering a new phase where political risk, sanctions, and conflict are playing a much bigger role in shaping marine exposures,” said Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial.
Record Low in Vessel Losses
Despite the challenging landscape, the review highlights a significant safety milestone: just 27 large ships (100GT+) were lost globally in 2024, down from 35 in 2023 and more than 200 annually in the 1990s. The total fleet today exceeds 100,000 vessels, illustrating that safety management and regulation have had a measurable impact.
Yet incidents remain frequent. The number of reported maritime accidents rose to a 10-year high of 250 in 2024, with fires — particularly on container ships, general cargo vessels, and ro-ros — representing a major concern. Fire remains a leading cause of vessel loss, with over 100 ships lost due to fire over the past decade.
Shadow Fleet Risks Grow
The rise of the so-called "shadow fleet" — older, often poorly maintained tankers operating outside normal compliance channels — is creating new headaches for insurers and regulators. Allianz estimates that approximately 17% of the global tanker fleet, including nearly 600 vessels transporting Russian oil, now falls into this category.
These ships have been involved in numerous high-profile incidents, including fires, collisions, and oil spills. “Shadow fleet vessels present serious risks to both safety and the environment. A single oil spill could cost up to $1.6 billion in cleanup alone,” warned Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader for Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial.
Trade Disruption and Regulatory Risk
Tariff escalation, particularly between the U.S. and China, has further complicated global supply chain flows. As of April 2025, nearly one-fifth of global maritime trade was subject to tariffs, up from just 4% in early March. These abrupt shifts have led to sharp declines in shipping volumes on key trade routes and added unpredictability to vessel deployment and chartering strategies.
At the same time, efforts to decarbonize the sector are introducing new complexities. The rising prevalence of lithium-ion batteries and other energy storage systems aboard vessels increases fire risk, while compliance with emerging environmental and safety regulations continues to evolve.
Looking Ahead: Infrastructure, Cyber, and Red Sea Risk
Beyond traditional threats, maritime cyber risk is also escalating. GPS spoofing, signal interference, and network vulnerabilities are growing concerns for ship operators and ports, especially in high-risk regions.
Although ceasefires in some global conflicts have offered temporary relief, Khanna warned that threats in the Red Sea and other chokepoints could persist well into the future. Additionally, the long-term implications of decarbonization, automation, and evolving insurance frameworks will shape how the industry navigates this next phase of transformation.
“The coming years will be decisive. The green transition, digitalization, and global security dynamics will define how resilient our global shipping industry becomes,” Khanna added.
The Bottom Line
While the shipping industry has made major strides in safety and operational resilience, the Allianz report makes clear that the path forward will be shaped by a wider set of variables than ever before — many of them outside the industry’s control. For maritime stakeholders, adapting to these new risks will require collaboration across insurers, regulators, shipyards, and operators, along with continued vigilance on emerging threats both above and below the waterline.
