The Top 8: What Shipowners Should Watch in 2026
According to Veson Nautical’s 2025 End-of-Year Market Report, a report which breaks down prevailing trends in all major oceangoing shipping sectors globally, these are the prevailing trends shipowners should watch in 2026.
1. Routing Normalization vs. Geopolitical Reality
Much of 2025’s earnings strength—especially in containers, crude tankers and dry bulk—was driven by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. Any sustained return to Suez transits in 2026 would compress ton-mile demand quickly. Owners should plan for volatility rather than assume a clean reversion to pre-Red Sea norms.
2. Newbuild Deliveries Finally Hit the Water
After years of orderbook expansion, 2026 is when supply growth becomes unavoidable, particularly in containers and LNG. Owners with exposure to oversupplied segments should stress-test earnings assumptions against falling utilization and shorter charter durations.
3. Asset Quality Gap Widens
The divide between modern, fuel-efficient tonnage and older ships will widen further. FuelEU Maritime, EU ETS and charterer ESG pressure will increasingly translate into real commercial penalties for older vessels—lower utilization, shorter charters, or outright obsolescence.
4. Product Tankers vs. Crude Tankers
The tanker bifurcation is not going away. Crude segments remain structurally supported by sanctions inefficiencies and trade dislocation. Product tankers face a tougher road unless refining margins, clean demand and regional arbitrage improve meaningfully.
5. Scrapping Economics Finally Matter Again
Demolition activity rose in 2025 from historic lows and is likely to accelerate in 2026, particularly in LNG, product tankers and smaller gas carriers. Owners should watch scrap prices relative to earnings—the break-even point is moving closer for older ships.
6. Financing Becomes More Selective
Banks and leasing houses are increasingly discriminating. Expect better terms for dual-fuel, ammonia-ready or LNG-capable tonnage—and tougher conversations for standard-spec ships approaching mid-life. Access to capital may matter as much as market timing.
7. China’s Dual Role: Cargo Driver and Capacity Risk
China remains both the largest demand lever and the dominant shipbuilding force. Stimulus or slowdown will ripple through bulk and tanker trades, while Chinese yard output continues to shape global fleet growth. Owners should watch policy signals as closely as freight indices.
8. Optionality Is the New Strategy
In an environment where fuel pathways, trade routes and regulation remain unsettled, flexibility beats optimization. Owners who preserved balance-sheet strength and fleet optionality in 2025 are best positioned to navigate 2026’s uneven recovery.
