Caribbean Basin Crude Oil Exports Jump 45%

"Caribbean Basin have year-to-date increased by 234 million barrels year-on-year according to data from Signal Ocean. This is equal to an additional 880k barrels per day, and a 45% jump compared to 2025,“ says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

Adjusting for an increase in barrels transhipped via the Bahamas, we estimate that exports from the Caribbean Basin so far have added 210 million new crude oil and heavy product barrels. The increase equals 790k barrels per day. This makes the Caribbean Basin the area that has added the largest number of new barrels to the dirty tanker market so far this year.

While exports from the Red Sea area have increased 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) year-to-date, the rise is due to rerouting of existing Saudi barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. The shift has not added new barrels to the market and in fact, Saudia Arabia’s total exports have so far this year fallen by 1.7 mbpd.

The increase in exports has made the Caribbean Basin the eight largest export area, surpassing the Black Sea & Marmara Sea, the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, all of which reported higher exports than the Caribbean Basin until recently.

“Venezuelan and Guyanese exports have year-to-date increased by 600k barrels and 200k barrels respectively while other countries have seen smaller changes in volumes. The total increase has lifted the Caribbean Basin’s share of global exports to 6.1% from 3.9% in 2025,” says Rasmussen.

The larger exports from Guyana have exclusively benefited Suezmaxes while Aframaxes and LR2s have participated in the increased exports from Venezuela. In total, Suezmaxes have taken 48% of the extra barrels from the Caribbean Basin while LR2s and Aframaxes have taken 29% and 14% respectively.

The 45% jump in Caribbean Basin exports has not resulted in a 45% tonne-mile increase. A significant share of Venezuela’s increased volumes has been exported to the US and India whereas volumes to China have reduced. All in all, we estimate that the average sailing distance for Caribbean Basin exports has fallen nearly 10% while tonne-mile demand has risen 31% year-on-year.

“Looking ahead, Caribbean Basin exports are expected to see continued growth. With the world’s largest proven oil reserves of more than 300bn barrels, Venezuela could emerge as one of the largest suppliers if planned investments and production materialise. Guyana’s production expansion is already planned and according to the International Energy Agency, the country’s exports could increase another 210k barrels per day in 2027,” says Rasmussen.