IEA: Middle East Conflict Reshaping Medium-Term Gas Outlook

The Iran war has already led to a loss of about 120 billion cubic metres of global liquefied natural gas supply over the 2026 to 2030 period, Gergely Molnar, an analyst from the International Energy Agency, said on Thursday.

Speaking at the Budapest LNG Summit, Molnar said the conflict was reshaping the medium-term gas outlook, with tighter market conditions likely to persist longer than previously expected.

He said the crisis had cut LNG supply by around 15%, but a strong increase in new liquefaction capacity was expected to offset lost volumes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, threatening supplies to Europe and Asia ahead of the summer season typically used to fill up storage ahead of the winter.

As European Union storage levels are some 30% below their five-year average, filling them up to the 90%-full target will require an additional 10 bcm of gas, according to the IEA's Molnar.

(Reuters - Reporting by Krisztina Than and Marek Strzelecki, Editing by Louise Heavens)